Long-Term Holder Position Change

Long-Term Holder Position Change is used to track the daily change in the quantity of BTC that has been held for more than 155 days.

Adjusting the SMA parameter to 90, we can observe that after 2014:

1) When the price of BTC began to accelerate in the long-term upward trend, the indicator kept hitting new lows, indicating that the growth rate of new funds entering the market was sufficient, and long-term holders were accelerating the distribution of high-priced chips, corresponding to the main rising market trend.

2) This indicator can be used as an auxiliary indicator for judging the bottom range of the market. Even if other indicators have been used to judge that the market is close to the bottom range, and with the sudden acceleration of the BTC price in the long-term downward trend, the indicator also falls rapidly accordingly, indicating that some long-term holdings Those who start to surrender in the rapid price drop (need to exclude the case of the exchange sorting out the wallet) often correspond to the bottom range of the price.