1Y+ HODL Wave

The 1Y+ HODL Wave is used to track the percentage of BTC in circulation that has not moved for at least 1 year.

Observation reveals:

1) In the long-term upward trend, when the indicator value exceeds the high point of the previous cycle, and the growth rate gradually slows down and turns downward, it means that the growth rate of the funds entering the market is sufficient, and the long-term holders start to speed up the distribution of chips. Often corresponds to the main rising wave of the market

2) This indicator can be used as an auxiliary indicator for judging the bottom range of the market. Even if other indicators have been used to judge that the market is close to the bottom range, and the price of BTC suddenly accelerates in the long-term downward trend, the indicator also suddenly turns downward, indicating that Some long-term holders start to capitulate during the rapid price drop (need to exclude the case of the exchange sorting out their wallets), which often corresponds to the bottom range of the price.

3) This indicator is also an auxiliary means for judging the effectiveness of the bull-bear cycle. As shown in the figure, the indicator trends of each bull-bear cycle are very similar